The printing industry has always been the key source of volatile organic compound(VOC) emissions in China. However, owing to the complexity of raw materials and processes, the fine emission inventory and its future emission reduction potential of VOCs from the printing industry have not been well characterized. In this study, the existing VOCs emission factors of the printing industry were improved, considering the neglected semi/intermediate VOCs(S/IVOCs). An emissions inventory of VOCs from the printing industry in the period of 2011-2020 in China was compiled. Through scenario analysis, the emission of VOCs under different scenarios in 2030 was predicted, and the emission reduction potential was analyzed. VOCs emissions from the printing industry in China increased first and then decreased in the period of 2011-2020. Compared with that in 2011, VOCs emissions increased by 29.6% in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0%. This was mainly due to the increasing consumption demand in the printing industry market and the lack of effective measures for integrated management of VOCs. The VOCs emission of the printing industry in China in 2020 was 861 Gg. Gravure printing and packaging processing were the two most important processes, accounting for 52.0% and 28.7%, respectively. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang were the largest contributors to VOC emissions, accounting for 44.12% of the total emissions. VOCs emissions of the printing industry in 2030 were 1187 Gg, 684 Gg, and 362 Gg for the baseline scenario, the general control scenario, and the strict control scenario, respectively. Compared to that in 2020, emissions under different control scenarios in 2030 increased by 37.9% and decreased by 20.6% and 57.9%, respectively. Gravure printing and packaging processing are still the focus of emission reduction.
Keywords: emission trend; printing; reduction potential; scenario analysis; volatile organic compounds(VOCs).