Impact of rising temperatures on historical wheat yield, phenology, and grain size in Catalonia

Davide Gulino; Roser Sayeras; Joan Serra; Josep Betbese; Jordi Doltra; Adrian Gracia-Romero; Marta S Lopes

doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1245362

Impact of rising temperatures on historical wheat yield, phenology, and grain size in Catalonia

Front Plant Sci. 2023 Oct 11:14:1245362. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1245362. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Davide Gulino¹, Roser Sayeras², Joan Serra², Josep Betbese¹, Jordi Doltra², Adrian Gracia-Romero¹, Marta S Lopes¹

Affiliations

¹ Sustainable Field Crops Program, IRTA (Institute of Agrifood Research and Technology), Lleida, Spain.
² Sustainable Field Crops Program, IRTA (Institute of Agrifood Research and Technology), Girona, Spain.

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, impacting crop yields and necessitating adaptive strategies in breeding programs. This study investigates the genetic yield progress of wheat varieties in Catalonia, Spain, from 2007 to 2021, and examines the relationship between genetic yield and climate-related factors, such as temperature. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for ensuring the resilience of wheat crops in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Methods: Genetic yield progress was assessed using a linear regression function, comparing the average yield changes of newly released wheat varieties to benchmark varieties. Additionally, a quadratic function was employed to model genetic yield progress in winter wheat (WW). The study also analyzed correlations between genetic yield (GY) and normalized values of hectoliter weight (HLW) and the number of grains (NG) for both spring wheat (SW) and WW. Weather data were used to confirm climate change impacts on temperature and its effects on wheat growth and development.

Results: The study found that genetic yield was stagnant for SW but increased linearly by 1.31% per year for WW. However, the quadratic function indicated a possible plateau in WW genetic yield progress in recent years. Positive correlations were observed between GY and normalized values of HLW and NG for both SW and WW. Climate change was evident in Catalonia, with temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.050 °C per year. This rise in temperature had detrimental effects on days to heading (DH) and HLW, with reductions observed in both SW and WW for each °C increase in annual minimum and average temperature.

Discussion: The findings highlighted the urgent need to address the impact of climate change on wheat cultivation. The stagnation of genetic yield in SW and the potential plateau in WW genetic yield progress call for adaptive measures. Breeding programs should prioritize phenological adjustments, particularly sowing date optimization, to align with the most favorable months of the year. Moreover, efforts should be made to enhance HLW and the number of grains per unit area in new wheat varieties to counteract the negative effects of rising temperatures. This research underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptation in agricultural practices to ensure yield resilience in the context of a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change; genetic gain; temperature; wheat; yield progress.

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the projects TED2021-131606B-C21 of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and by the CROPDIVA (Climate Resilient Orphan CroPs for increased DIVersity in Agriculture) project through the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 101000847. The funders played no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or manuscript preparation.