Background: The ultimate goal of treating patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is to repair them when the risk of rupture exceeds the risk of repair. Small AAAs demonstrate a low rupture risk, and recently, large AAAs just above the threshold (5.5-6.0 cm) seem to be at low risk of rupture as well. The present review aims to investigate the outcomes of AAAs under surveillance through a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis.
Methods: PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register were searched (22 March 2022; PROSPERO; #CRD42022316094). The Cochrane and PRISMA statements were respected. Blinded systematic screening of the literature, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two authors. Conflicts were resolved by a third author. The meta-analysis of prevalence provided estimated proportions, 95% confidence intervals, and measures of heterogeneity (I2). Based on I2, the heterogeneity might be negligible (0-40%), moderate (30-60%), substantial (50-90%), and considerable (75-100%). The primary outcome was the incidence of AAA rupture. Secondary outcomes included the rate of small AAAs reaching the threshold for repair, aortic-related mortality, and all-cause mortality.
Results: Fourteen publications (25,040 patients) were included in the analysis. The outcome rates of the small AAA group (<55 mm) were 0.3% (95% CI 0.0-1.0; I2 = 76.4%) of rupture, 0.6% (95% CI 0.0-1.9; I2 = 87.2%) of aortic-related mortality, and 9.6% (95% CI 2.2-21.1; I2 = 99.0%) of all-cause mortality. During surveillance, 21.4% (95% CI 9.0-37.2; I2 = 99.0%) of the initially small AAAs reached the threshold for repair. The outcome rates of the large AAA group (>55 mm) were 25.7% (95% CI 18.0-34.3; I2 = 72.0%) of rupture, 22.1% (95% CI 16.5-28.3; I2 = 25.0%) of aortic-related mortality, and 61.8% (95% CI 47.0-75.6; I2 = 89.1%) of all-cause mortality. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated a higher rupture rate in studies including <662 subjects, patients with a mean age > 72 years, >17% of female patients, and >44% of current smokers.
Conclusion: The rarity of rupture and aortic-related mortality in small AAAs supports the current conservative management of small AAAs. Surveillance seems indicated, as one-fifth reached the threshold for repair. Large aneurysms had a high incidence of rupture and aortic-related mortality. However, these data seem biased by the sparse and heterogeneous literature overrepresented by patients unfit for surgery. Specific rupture risk stratified by age, gender, and fit-for-surgery patients with large AAAs needs to be further investigated.
Keywords: aneurysm; aortic aneurysm; aortic disease; aortic pathology; mortality; ruptured aneurysm.