The metastatic risk of uveal melanoma (UM) is defined by a limited number of molecular lesions, somatic mutations (SF3B1 and BAP1), and copy number alterations (CNA): monosomy of chromosome 3 (M3), chr8q gain (8q), chr6p gain (6p), yet the sequence of events is not clear. We analyzed data from three datasets (TCGA-UVM, GSE27831, GSE51880) with information regarding M3, 8q, 6p, SF3B1, and BAP1 status. We confirm that BAP1 mutations are always associated with M3 in high-risk patients. All other features (6p, 8q, M3, SF3B1 mutation) were present independently from each other. Chr8q gain was frequently associated with chr3 disomy. Hierarchical clustering of gene expression data of samples with different binary combinations of aggressivity factors shows that patients with 8q|M3, BAP1|M3 form one cluster enriched in samples that developed metastases. Patients with 6p combined with either 8q or SF3B1 are mainly represented in the other, low-risk cluster. Several gene expression events that show a non-significant association with outcome when considering single features become significant when analyzing combinations of risk features indicating additive action. The independence of risk factors is consistent with a random risk model of UM metastasis without an obligatory sequence.
Keywords: BAP1; CNA; gene expression; metastases; tumor evolution; uveal melanoma.