Background: The increasing number of pertussis cases worldwide over the past two decades has challenged healthcare workers, and the role of environmental factors and climate change cannot be ignored. The incidence of pertussis has increased dramatically in mainland China since 2015, developing into a serious public health problem. The association of meteorological factors on pertussis has attracted attention, but few studies have examined the impact of air pollutants on this respiratory disease.
Methods: In this study, we analyzed the relationship between outdoor air pollution and the pertussis incidence. The study period was from January 2013 to December 2018, and monthly air pollutant data and the monthly incidence of patients in 31 provinces of China were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) analysis was used to estimate the associations between six air pollutants and monthly pertussis incidence in China.
Results: We found a correlation between elevated pertussis incidence and short-term high monthly CO2 and O3 exposure, with a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 and O3 being significantly associated with increased pertussis incidence, with RR values of 1.78 (95% CI: 1.29-2.46) and 1.51 (95% CI: 1.16-1.97) at a lag of 0 months, respectively. Moreover, PM2.5 and SO2 also played key roles in the risk of pertussis surged. These associations remain significant after adjusting for long-term trend, seasonality and collinearity.
Conclusions: Overall, these data reinforce the evidence of a link between incidence and climate identified in regional and local studies. These findings also further support the hypothesis that air pollution is responsible for the global resurgence of pertussis. Based on this we suggest that public health workers should be encouraged to consider the risks of the environment when focusing on pertussis prevention and control.
Keywords: Air pollution; Distributed lag non-linear model; Pertussis; Resurgence; Risk; Time-series.
© 2023. The Author(s).