Modeling and forecasting CO2 emissions in China and its regions using a novel ARIMA-LSTM model

Tingxin Wen; Yazhou Liu; Yun He Bai; Haoyuan Liu

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21241

Modeling and forecasting CO₂ emissions in China and its regions using a novel ARIMA-LSTM model

Heliyon. 2023 Oct 24;9(11):e21241. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21241. eCollection 2023 Nov.

Authors

Tingxin Wen¹, Yazhou Liu¹, Yun He Bai¹, Haoyuan Liu¹

Affiliation

¹ College of Business Administration, Liao Ning Technical University, XingCheng, 125100, China.

Abstract

Since China joined the WTO, its economy has experienced rapidly growth, resulting in significantly increase in fossil fuel consumption and corresponding rise in CO₂ emissions. Currently, China is the world's largest emitter of CO₂, the regional distribution is also extremely uneven. so, it is important to identify the factors influence CO₂ emissions in the three regions and predict future trends based on these factors. This paper proposes 14 carbon emission factors and uses the random forest feature ranking algorithm to rank the importance of these factors in three regions. The main factors affecting CO₂ emissions in each region are identified. Additionally, an ARIMA + LSTM carbon emission predict model based on the inverse error combination method is developed to address the linear and nonlinear relationships of carbon emission data. The findings suggest that the ARIMA + LSTM is more accurate in predicting the trend of CO₂ emissions in China. Moreover, the ARIMA + LSTM is employed to forecast the future CO₂ emission trends in China's east, central, and west regions, which can serve as a foundation for China's CO₂ emission reduction initiatives.

Keywords: ARIMA+LSTM; Carbon dioxide emissions; Factors analysis; Forecast.