The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has boosted economic development while harming the ecology. It is vital to track its CO2 emissions to guide the BRI toward a green future and low carbon. Our research contributes to these goals in two ways. First, this research examines the spatial-temporal effects of institutional quality (IQ) and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions for 75 BRI countries from 1990 to 2019. Second, geographical implications are considered when assessing the factors that affect CO2 emissions on a regional scale. Several diagnostic methods are used to determine the significant spatial impacts, and spatial panel models (SPMs) are used to analyze the phenomenon's spillover and direct consequences. The empirical findings demonstrate that increased IQ and renewable energy (RNC) harm the country's CO2 emissions. These negative consequences spread geographically to adjacent countries of the impacted country. Moreover, non-renewable energy (NC) positively affects the CO2 of the impacted nation and its neighbors. Hence, the objective of reducing CO2 emissions compels BRI to establish an effective plan to reduce non-renewable energy, enhance IQ, resolve internal and external disputes, and foster religious and ethnic harmony in BRI-affected nations. Positive direct and negative spatial impacts of economic expansion highlight the zero-sum game of nations, so high CO2-emitting countries should exercise caution when implementing economic policies.
Keywords: BRI; CO2 emissions; Institutional quality; Non-renewable energy; Renewable energy.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.