A large-scale study integrating nutritional indicators and clinicopathological parameters to evaluate prognosis, follow-up, and postoperative chemotherapy decisions in rectal cancer patients

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of nutritional indicators and clinicopathological parameters in predicting the progression and prognosis for pathological stage II-III rectal cancer (RC) patients without neoadjuvant radiotherapy. In addition, we sought to explore the high-risk population who may require postoperative chemotherapy.

Methods: A total of 894 consecutive RC patients were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were performed to identify the independent risk factors for PFS and OS. The nomogram and calibration curves were conducted according to multivariable analysis result. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were performed for different groups. Finally, random survival forest (RSF) model was developed to predict the probability of progression.

Results: Our results revealed that CEA level, pathological stage, tumor deposit, and PNI were independently associated with PFS in RC patients. Similarly, the results indicated that CEA level, pathological stage, tumor deposit, PNI, and NRI were independently associated with OS. RSF model revealed that group 1 had the highest risk of progression at the 12th month of follow-up, group 2 had the highest risk of progression at the 15th month of follow-up, while group 3 had the highest risk of progression at the 9th month of follow-up. Besides, subgroup analysis suggested that the high-risk group needs postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, while patients in the low- and moderate-risk groups may not need postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. Finally, we validated our results with the SEER database.

Conclusions: In conclusion, we demonstrated that preoperative nutritional indicator and clinicopathological parameters could act as auxiliary prognostication tools for RC patients without neoadjuvant radiotherapy. We also established follow-up strategies for different groups of patients. Collectively, incorporating nutritional assessment into risk stratification for RC resection is crucial and should be an integral part of preoperative planning.

Keywords: Follow-up strategy; Locally advanced rectal cancer; Nutritional indicators; Postoperative chemotherapy; Risk stratification.