Development and Evaluation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Outcome of Immune Reconstitution Among HIV/AIDS Patients Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in China

Abstract

This study aims to develop and evaluate a model to predict the immune reconstitution among HIV/AIDS patients after antiretroviral therapy (ART). A total of 502 HIV/AIDS patients are randomized to the training cohort and evaluation cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis are performed to identify the indicators and establish the nomogram for predicting the immune reconstitution. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) are used to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the nomogram. Predictive factors included white blood cells (WBC), baseline CD4⁺ T-cell counts (baseline CD4), ratio of effector regulatory T cells to resting regulatory T cells (eTreg/rTreg) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and are incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the curve (AUC) is 0.812 (95% CI, 0.767∼0.851) and 0.794 (95%CI, 0.719∼0.857) in the training cohort and evaluation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve shows a high consistency between the predicted and actual observations. Moreover, DCA and CIC indicate that the nomogram has a superior net benefit in predicting poor immune reconstitution. A simple-to-use nomogram containing four routinely collected variables is developed and internally evaluated and can be used to predict the poor immune reconstitution in HIV/AIDS patients after ART.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS patients; antiretroviral therapy; immune reconstitution; nomogram.