Using machine learning methods to analyze the association between urinary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and chronic bowel disorders in American adults

Abstract

The etiology of chronic bowel disorders is multifaceted, with environmental exposure to harmful substances potentially playing a significant role in their pathogenesis. However, research on the correlation between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and chronic bowel disorders remains limited. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2009-2010, we investigated the relationship between 9 PAHs and chronic diarrhea and constipation in U.S. adults. We employed unsupervised methods such as clustering and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify participants with similar exposure patterns. Additionally, we used supervised learning techniques, namely weighted quantile sum (WQS) and Bayesian kernel machine (BKMR) regressions, to assess the association between PAHs and the occurrence of chronic diarrhea and chronic constipation. PCA identified three principal components in the unsupervised analysis, explaining 86.5% of the total PAH variability. The first component displayed a mild association with chronic diarrhea, but no correlation with chronic constipation. Participants were divided into three clusters via K-means clustering, based on PAH concentrations. Clusters with higher PAH exposure demonstrated an increased odds ratio for chronic diarrhea, but no meaningful connection with chronic constipation. In the supervised analysis, the WQS regression underscored a positive relationship between the PAH mixture and chronic diarrhea, with three PAHs significantly impacting the mixture effect. The mixture index showed no correlation with chronic constipation. BKMR analysis illustrated a positive trend in the impact of four specific PAHs on chronic diarrhea, given other metabolites were fixed at their 50th percentiles. Our results suggest a clear association between higher PAH exposure and an increased risk of chronic diarrhea, but not chronic constipation. It also underscores the potential role of specific PAHs in contributing to the risk of chronic diarrhea.

Keywords: Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR); Chronic diarrhea and constipation; Machine learning methods; PAHs; Weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression.