Assessment of suitable areas for afforestation and its carbon sink value in fragile ecological areas of northern China

Abstract

Afforestation and reforestation are pivotal in mitigating land degradation and bolstering the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the potential economic ramifications of afforestation and reforestation in the context of climate change remain largely unexplored. In this study, we employed an interdisciplinary methodology to establish a framework for assessing future forest potential and carbon sequestration in the Eastern Loess Plateau region of China. Our findings indicate that an estimated 17,392.99 km² of land suitable for afforestation still existed within the region, exhibiting a propensity to aggregate around existing forests rather than being dispersed randomly. Notably, 4385.36 km² was prioritized for afforestation initiatives. Projections suggest a significant enhancement of the forest carbon sink within the study area by 2050, ranging from 36.93 Mt to 105.38 Mt. The corresponding economic value for this enhancement is estimated to vary between US$3.25 billion and US$17.68 billion. Of significance is the observed polarization of the region's carbon sink capacity over time, with half of the total carbon sinks concentrated within 10% of the districts. Additionally, approximately 26% of the counties are expected to transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources. These findings underscore the substantial impact of climate change on forest distribution and suggest a targeted approach to combat forest degradation by circumventing ineffective afforestation activities.

Keywords: Afforestation and reforestation; Climate change; Forest carbon sinks; Forest management; Value accounting.