Seasonal distribution patterns of Scomberomorus commerson in the Taiwan Strait in relation to oceanographic conditions: An ensemble modeling approach

Abstract

The decline in the stock of the narrow-barred Spanish mackerel in the Taiwan Strait has sparked interest in conservation efforts. To optimize conservation and restoration efforts, it is crucial to understand their habitat preference in response to changing environments. In this study, ensemble modeling was used to investigate the seasonal distribution patterns of Spanish mackerel. Winter was identified as the most productive season, followed by fall; productivity was the lowest in summer. Five single-algorithm models were developed, and on the basis of their performance, four were selected for inclusion in an ensemble species distribution model. The spatial distribution of Spanish mackerel was primarily along the latitudinal range 23°-25°N in spring and summer. However, in fall and winter, the geographical range increased toward the southern region. The findings of this study will contribute to the understanding of this specific species and the approach used in this study may be applicable to other fisheries stocks also.

Keywords: Ensemble modeling; Scomberomorus commerson; Seasonal variability; Single-algorithm model; Taiwan Strait.