A new rolling forecasting framework using Microsoft Power BI for data visualization: A case study in a pharmaceutical industry

Abstract

Context and objectives: Demand forecasting is a vital step for production planning and consequently, for supply chain efficiency, especially for the pharmaceutical (pharma) supply chain due to its unique characteristics. Numerous models and techniques that are proposed in the literature but little in concrete and generic framework to forecasting process, mainly for pharmaceutical supply chain. Unlike studies in the literature, this study not only perfectly predict the sales of a pharma manufacturer, but also visualize the results via a developed dashboard using modern information technology and business intelligence.

Material and methods: In this research, a rolling forecasting framework comprising of different steps and specialized tools is proposed that can assist supply chain managers to perform an accurate sales forecasting and consequently a better performance and specifically patient satisfaction. The proposed generic framework combines the use of Visual studio C++ software to extract optimal forecasting and the Power BI software to monitor the accuracy of the obtained sales forecasts. Three exponential smoothing methods are integrated in the proposed framework, which is open to adding more new forecasting methods.

Results: The proposed framework is tested for many data sets from a pharmaceutical manufacturer company, and the results obtained show superior performance, especially a clear decline in both forecast errors, which can reach 75% and a drop of stock level to 50%. Therefore, the company is currently using it and a future integration with their ERP is being carried out.

Conclusion: The proposed rolling forecasting framework contributes to insightful decision-making through the visualization of accurate future sales and turnover, and consequently, an efficient stock management and effective production planning.

Keywords: Cadre générique de prévision; Dashboard; Generic forecasting framework; Industrie pharmaceutique; Pharmaceutical industry; Power BI; Prévision des ventes; Sales forecasting; Tableau de bord.