The rise in health care costs, caused by older and more complex patient populations, requires Population Health Management approaches including risk stratification. With risk stratification, patients are assigned individual risk scores based on medical records. These patient stratifications focus on future high costs and expensive care utilization such as hospitalization, for which different models exist. With this study, the research team validated the accuracy of risk prediction scores for future hospitalization and high health care costs, calculated by the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG)'s risk stratification models, using Dutch primary health care data registries. In addition, they aimed to adjust the US-based predictive models for Dutch primary care. The statistical validity of the existing models was assessed. In addition, the underlying prediction models were trained on 95,262 patients' data from de Zoetermeer region and externally validated on data of 48,780 patients from Zeist, Nijkerk, and Urk. Information on age, sex, number of general practitioner visits, International Classification of Primary Care coded information on the diagnosis and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification coded information on the prescribed medications, were incorporated in the model. C-statistics were used to validate the discriminatory ability of the models. Calibrating ability was assessed by visual inspection of calibration plots. Adjustment of the hospitalization model based on Dutch data improved C-statistics from 0.69 to 0.75, whereas adjustment of the high-cost model improved C-statistics from 0.78 to 0.85, indicating good discrimination of the models. The models also showed good calibration. In conclusion, the local adjustments of the ACG prediction models show great potential for use in Dutch primary care.
Keywords: health risk assessment; population health; predictive modeling; risk stratification.