Accuracy of Prediction Models in Diagnosis of Acute Diverticulitis

Abstract

Background/aim: The diagnostic score models (DMs) for patients with acute diverticulitis (AcDi) have been rarely evaluated. Therefore, we tried to develop diagnostic models (DMs) to enhance the diagnostic accuracy (DA) of AcDi.

Patients and methods: In this AAP (acute abdominal pain) cohort, 30 AcDi patients were compared to 1,303 non-AcDi patients, with regard to their i) clinical symptoms (n=22), ii) signs and tests (n=14) as well as iii) laboratory analyses (n=3). The triage was performed at patient arrival to the emergency department (ED) (triage I) and at follow-up (triage II) before final decision. The triage included a suggested diagnosis of the AAP patient. Bivariate random effects meta-analysis was performed separately for 1) the pooled symptoms (n=22), 2) signs & tests (n=17) as well as 3) pooled DMs (I-V) with different cut-offs (with or without triage) to assess the diagnostic accuracy (DA) in detection of AcDi by HSROC (hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic) curves.

Results: In the conventional receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis (for test optimization and finding optimal cut-off points), the area under curve (AUC) reached the following values for AcDi: i) DM without triage, AUC=0.843, ii) DM with triage I, AUC=0.866 and iii) DM with triage I and II, AUC=0.926. In the HSROC analysis, the AUC values for detection of AcDi were as follows; i) pooled clinical symptoms, AUC=0.540, ii) pooled clinical signs & tests, AUC=0.556 and iii) pooled DMs globally, AUC=0.853. In roccomp analysis for differences in AUC values: i) and iii) p<0.0001; between ii) and iii) p<0.0001.

Conclusion: As confirmed by ROC and HSROC analysis, the new DMs with triage mode proved to be far superior in their DA for AcDi as compared to both symptoms and signs & tests. In the lack of earlier studies, these data report the first evidence that the DM including triage at an ED could improve the detection of AcDi.

Keywords: Acute diverticulitis; HSROC; diagnostic accuracy; diagnostic score; signs; symptoms; tests.