Is there sufficient scientific evidence for excess mortality caused by COVID-19? The German population, similar to the population of many other countries, is subject to fluctuations caused by multiple factors, including migration and aging. COVID-19 is one additional factor, superposing natural or seasonal mortality fluctuations. To give scientific evidence for excess mortality caused by COVID-19, it is essential to employ appropriate statistical tools. This study develops a score indicating excess mortality and studies its evolution over time. Applied to data provided by governmental authorities, the indicator discloses, without relating to causes of death explicitly, excess mortality at the end of 2020, in 2021, and in 2022. In addition, the indicator confirms that COVID-19 particularly impacted the elderly segment of the population.
Keywords: COVID-19; excess mortality; improving mortality rates; parametric mortality models.