The severity of industrial accidents involving domino effects is widely acknowledged in chemical and process industries. The interdependence of installations and complexity of layouts pose significant challenges for the rapid quantitative assessment of domino effects in large chemical plants. In this study, a set of domino indices was introduced to measure the extent to which a given installation triggered and propagated domino effects, as well as to assess the overall domino effect in a specified area. An accelerated algorithm for domino accident modelling was developed based on Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the domino index. This algorithm can simulate all potential domino accident propagation pathways and the failure frequencies of installations. Two case studies, derived for a hypothetical chemical plant and actual oil-storage facilities, were examined to evaluate the applicability of the method. Furthermore, the method was validated using conditional probability calculations and vertex metrics. The results demonstrated that the proposed domino index is a useful tool for rapidly quantifying domino effects and that it can assist in identifying critical installations, designing plant layouts, and screening hazardous areas. The method and indices can provide guidance for the prevention of severe domino accidents.
Keywords: Chemical plants; Domino effects; Domino index; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk management.
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