Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018

Andrew Linke; Stephanie Leutert; Joshua Busby; Maria Duque; Matthew Shawcroft; Simon Brewer

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-43668-9

Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018

Sci Rep. 2023 Oct 26;13(1):18400. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-43668-9.

Authors

Andrew Linke¹, Stephanie Leutert^{2

3}, Joshua Busby^{2

3}, Maria Duque⁴, Matthew Shawcroft⁵, Simon Brewer⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA. andrew.linke@geog.utah.edu.
² LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA.
³ Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA.
⁴ University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA.
⁵ Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA.

Abstract

Controlling for factors such as criminal violence and poverty, we tested if drier than usual growing season weather was a predictor of emigration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the US between 2012 and 2018. We focus on growing season weather because agriculture is a primary transmission pathway from the effects of climate change upon migration. We secured the migration apprehensions data for our analysis through a FOIA request to US Customs and Border Protection. Border Patrol intake interviews recorded the original home location of families that arrived at the southern US border. We used this geographic information to measure recent weather patterns and social circumstances in the area that each family departed. We found 70.7% more emigration to the US when local growing seasons in Central America were recently drier than the historical average since 1901.