Analysis of heatwaves based on the universal thermal climate index and apparent temperature over mainland Southeast Asia

Abstract

Heatwaves have caused significant damage to human health, infrastructure, and economies in recent decades, and the occurrences of heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe across the globe under climate change. The previous studies on heatwaves have primarily focused on air temperature, neglecting other variables like wind speed, relative humidity, and radiation, which could lead to a serious underestimation of the adverse effects of heatwaves. To address this issue, this study proposed to the use of more sophisticated thermal indices, such as universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and apparent temperature (AT), to define heatwaves and carry out a comprehensive heatwave assessment over mainland southeast Asia (MSEA) from 1961 to 2020. The traditional temperature-based method was also compared. The results of the study demonstrate that the annual maximum temperature in heatwave days (HWA) and the annual average temperature in heatwave days (HWM) are significantly underestimated if only air temperature is considered. However, UTCI and AT tend to predict a lower frequency of yearly heatwave occurrences and shorter durations. Trend analysis indicates a general increase in heatwave occurrences across MSEA under all thermal indices in the past six decades, particularly in the last 30 years. This study's approach and findings provide a holistic view of heatwave characteristics based on thermal indices and highlight the risk of intensified heat stress during heatwaves in MSEA.

Keywords: ERA5; ERA5-Land; Heatwave; MSEA; Thermal indices; UTCI.