Impacts of climate change on the distribution of venomous Conus (Gastropoda: Conidae) species in the Indo-Pacific region

Abstract

Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.

Keywords: Cone snails; Distribution shifts; Marine environments; Public health; Species distribution models; Temperature.