Background: An emerging strategy to expand the donor pool is the use of a steatotic donor liver (SDLs; ≥ 30% macrosteatosis on biopsy). With the obesity epidemic and prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, SDLs have been reported in 59% of all deceased donors. Many potential candidates need to decide whether to accept an SDL offer or remain on the waitlist for a nonsteatotic donor liver (non-SDL). The objective of this study was to compare the survival of accepting an SDL vs using a non-SDL after waiting various times.
Methods: Using data from the United States' organ procurement and transplantation network, deep survival learning predictive models were built to compare post-decision survival after accepting an SDL vs waiting for a non-SDL. The comparison subjects contain simulated 20,000 different scenarios of a candidate either accepting an SDL immediately or receiving a non-SDL after waiting various times. The research variables were selected using the LASSO-Cox and Random Survival Forest (RSF) models. The Cox proportional hazards and RSF models were also comparatively included for survival prediction. In addition, personalized survival curves for randomly selected candidates were generated.
Result: Deep survival learning outperformed Cox proportional hazards and RSF in predicting the survival of liver transplants. Among the simulations, 25% to 30% of scenarios demonstrated a higher 3-year survival post-decision for candidates accepting an SDL than waiting and receiving a non-SDL. The difference was only 1.43% in 3-year survival post-decision between accepting an SDL and waiting 260 days (mean waitlist time) for a non-SDL. As the number of days on the waitlist increases, the difference in survival between accepting SDLs and waiting for non-SDLs decreases.
Conclusions: Appropriately used SDLs could expand the donor pool and relieve the candidates' unmet need for donor livers, which presents long-term survival benefits for recipients.
Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.