Objective: This study aimed to analyze post-recurrence progression in context of recurrence sites and assess implications for post-recurrence treatment.
Background: Most patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) recur within two years. Different survival outcomes for location-specific patterns of recurrence are reported, highlighting their prognostic value. However, a lack of understanding of post-recurrence progression and survival remains.
Methods: This retrospective analysis included surgically treated PDAC patients at the NYU-Langone Health (2010-2021). Sites of recurrence were identified at time of diagnosis and further follow-up. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, and Cox-regression analyses were applied to assess survival outcomes.
Results: Recurrence occurred in 57.3% (196/342) patients with a median time to recurrence of 11.3 months (95%CI:12.6 to 16.5). First site of recurrence was local in 43.9% patients, liver in 23.5%, peritoneal in 8.7%, lung in 3.6%, while 20.4% had multiple sites of recurrence. Progression to secondary sites was observed in 11.7%. Only lung involvement was associated with significantly longer survival after recurrence compared to other sites (16.9 months vs. 8.49 months, P=0.003). In local recurrence, 21 (33.3%) patients were alive after one year without progression to secondary sites. This was associated with a CA19-9 of <100U/ml at time of primary diagnosis (P=0.039), nodal negative disease (P=0.023), and well-moderate differentiation (P=0.042) compared to patients with progression.
Conclusion: Except for lung recurrence, post-recurrence survival after PDAC resection is associated with poor survival. A subset of patients with local-only recurrence do not quickly succumb to systemic spread. This is associated with markers for favorable tumor biology, making them candidates for potential curative re-resections when feasible.
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