Machine Learning-Based Integration Develops a Macrophage-Related Index for Predicting Prognosis and Immunotherapy Response in Lung Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Background: Macrophages play a critical role in tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) formation and cancer progression in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). However, few studies have comprehensively and systematically described the characteristics of macrophages in LUAD.

Methods: This study identified macrophage-related markers with single-cell RNA sequencing data from the GSE189487 dataset. An integrative machine learning-based procedure based on 10 algorithms was developed to construct a macrophage-related index (MRI) in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), GSE30219, GSE31210, and GSE72094 datasets. Several algorithms were used to evaluate the associations of MRI with TIME and immunotherapy-related biomarkers. The role of MRI in predicting the immunotherapy response was evaluated with the GSE91061 dataset.

Results: The optimal MRI constructed by the combination of the Lasso algorithm and plsRCox was an independent risk factor in LUAD and showed a stable and powerful performance in predicting the overall survival rate of patients with LUAD. Those with low MRI scores had a higher TIME score, a higher level of immune cells, a higher immunophenoscore, and a lower Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) score, indicating a better response to immunotherapy. The IC50 value of common drugs for chemotherapy and target therapy with low MRI scores was higher compared to high MRI scores. Moreover, the survival prediction nomogram, developed from MRI, had good potential for clinical application in predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rate of LUAD.

Conclusion: Our study constructed for the first time a consensus MRI for LUAD with 10 machine learning algorithms. The MRI could be helpful for risk stratification, prognosis, and selection of treatment approach in LUAD.

Keywords: Immunotherapy; Lung adenocarcinoma; Machine learning; Macrophage; Prognostic signature.