Identifying predictors of Day 5 blastocyst utilization rate using an artificial neural network

Abstract

Research question: Can artificial intelligence identify predictors of an increased Day 5 blastocyst utilization rate (D5BUR), which is one of the most informative key performance indicators in an IVF laboratory?

Design: This retrospective, multicentre study evaluated six variables for predicting D5BUR using an artificial neural network (ANN): number of metaphase II (MII) oocytes injected (intracytoplasmic sperm injection); use of autologous/donated gametes; maternal age at oocyte retrieval; sperm concentration; progressive sperm motility rate; and fertilization rate. Cycles were divided into training and testing sets through stratified random sampling. D5BUR on Day 5 was grouped into <60% and ≥60% as per the Vienna consensus benchmark values.

Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to predict the D5BUR groups was 80.2%. From the ANN model, all six independent variables were found to be of significant value for the prediction of D5BUR (P<0.0001), with the most important variable being the number of MII oocytes injected. Investigation of the effect of MII oocytes injected on D5BUR indicated an inverse correlation, with injection of an increasing number of MII oocytes resulting in a decreasing D5BUR (r=-0.344, P<0.001) and injection of up to six oocytes resulting in D5BUR ≥60%.

Conclusion: The number of MII oocytes injected is the most important predictor of D5BUR. Exploration of additional variables and further validation of models that can predict D5BUR can guide the way towards personalized treatment and increased safety.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Artificial neural network; Blastocyst utilization; Oocyte number.