Ensemble learning approach for advanced metering infrastructure in future smart grids

Abstract

Typically, load forecasting models are trained in an offline setting and then used to generate predictions in an online setting. However, this approach, known as batch learning, is limited in its ability to integrate new load information that becomes available in real-time. On the other hand, online learning methods enable load forecasting models to adapt efficiently to new incoming data. Electricity Load and Price Forecasting (ELPF) is critical to maintaining energy grid stability in smart grids. Existing forecasting methods cannot handle the available large amount of data, which are limited by different issues like non-linearity, un-adjusted high variance and high dimensions. A compact and improved algorithm is needed to synchronize with the diverse procedure in ELPF. Our model ELPF framework comprises high/low consumer data separation, handling missing and unstandardized data and preprocessing method, which includes selecting relevant features and removing redundant features. Finally, it implements the ELPF using an improved method Residual Network (ResNet-152) and the machine-improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) based forecasting engine to forecast the ELP accurately. We proposed two main distinct mechanisms, regularization, base learner selection and hyperparameter tuning, to improve the performance of the existing version of ResNet-152 and SVM. Furthermore, it reduces the time complexity and the overfitting model issue to handle more complex consumer data. Furthermore, numerous structures of ResNet-152 and SVM are also explored to improve the regularization function, base learners and compatible selection of the parameter values with respect to fitting capabilities for the final forecasting. Simulated results from the real-world load and price data confirm that the proposed method outperforms 8% of the existing schemes in performance measures and can also be used in industry-based applications.