Pancreatic cancer challenge in 52 Asian countries: age-centric insights and the role of modifiable risk factors (1990-2019)

Abstract

Background: Pancreatic cancer is renowned for its elevated incidence and mortality rates on a global scale. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is anticipated to increase, particularly in Asia, due to its vast and rapidly aging population.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 were analyzed for pancreatic cancer burden across 52 countries in Asia, including the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for pancreatic cancer, with a focus on risk factors such as high body mass index (BMI), elevated fasting plasma glucose, and smoking. We applied the Estimated Annual Percentage Change, the Age-Period-Cohort model, and decomposition analysis to evaluate incidence trends and effects.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, both incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Asia significantly increased, with an average annual standardized incidence rate change of 1.73%. Males consistently exhibited higher rates than females, with smoking as a key risk factor. Central Asia reported the highest rates, and South Asia the lowest. The incidence rose with age, peaking in those aged 70~74. The disease burden increased in all age groups, particularly in populations aged 55 and above, representing 84.41% of total cases in 2019, up from 79.01% in 1990. Pancreatic cancer ranked the fifth in incidence among six major gastrointestinal tumors but presented a significant growth rate of mortality and DALY.

Conclusion: With the growing, aging population in Asia, the pancreatic cancer burden is projected to escalate, bringing a significant public health challenge. Hence, comprehensive public health strategies emphasizing early detection, risk modification, and optimized treatment of pancreatic cancer are imperative.

Keywords: Asia; demographic aging; global burden of disease; pancreatic cancer; public health.