Unintended mitigation effect of air pollutant regulation on the aquatic cadmium: Evidence from the 11-FYPEP in China

Guangfei Yang; Zitong Guo; Wenjun Wu; Shuai Shao; Xu Peng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167814

Unintended mitigation effect of air pollutant regulation on the aquatic cadmium: Evidence from the 11-FYPEP in China

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 10:907:167814. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167814. Epub 2023 Oct 15.

Authors

Guangfei Yang¹, Zitong Guo¹, Wenjun Wu², Shuai Shao³, Xu Peng⁴

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China.
² State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China. Electronic address: wuwj@caep.org.cn.
³ School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.
⁴ School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China.

PMID: 37848144
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167814

Abstract

This paper evaluates the unintended mitigation effect of air pollutant regulation on aquatic cadmium (Cd) emissions in the China's Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Environmental Protection (11-FYPEP), by employing a continuous Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) estimator. We find that: (1) Although the 11-FYPEP did not target to reduce Cd emission, the implementation of 11-FYPEP reduced the emissions by 2.8 %. (2) The Cd emission is closely related to the industrial level, because the reduction of Cd is 6.1 % higher in areas with lower industrial output, and the mediating effect of the number of industrial enterprises accounts for 6.8 % of the Cd reduction. Based on our findings, implications like improving production efficiency and modifying industrial structure are proposed, as the 11-FYPEP achieves Cd reduction in an unsustainable way.

Keywords: 11-FYPEP; Air pollutant regulation; Aquatic cadmium reduction; Policy evaluation; Synergy reduction.