Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic

José C Fernández-Alvarez; Albenis Pérez-Alarcón; Jorge Eiras-Barca; Stefan Rahimi; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41915-1

Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic

Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 14;14(1):6476. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41915-1.

Authors

José C Fernández-Alvarez^{1

2}, Albenis Pérez-Alarcón^{1

2}, Jorge Eiras-Barca^{1

3}, Stefan Rahimi^{4

5}, Raquel Nieto¹, Luis Gimeno⁶

Affiliations

¹ Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, Ourense, 32004, Spain.
² Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana, La Habana, Cuba.
³ Defense University Center at the Spanish Naval Academy, Group of Applied Mathematics for Defense, Plaza de España s/n, 36920, Marín, Spain.
⁴ Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, 82071, USA.
⁵ Center for Climate Science, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.
⁶ Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, Ourense, 32004, Spain. l.gimeno@uvigo.es.

Abstract

Global warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are expected to alter the hydrological cycle, including the intensity and position of moisture sources. This study presents predicted changes for the middle and end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for two important extratropical moisture sources: the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL) and Mediterranean Sea (MED). Changes over the Iberian Peninsula-considered as a strategic moisture sink for its location-are also studied in detail. By the end of the century, moisture from the NATL will increase precipitation over eastern North America in winter and autumn and on the British Isles in winter. Moisture from the MED will increase precipitation over the southern and western portions of the Mediterranean continental area. Precipitation associated with the MED moisture source will decrease mainly over eastern Europe, while that associated with the NATL will decrease over western Europe and Africa. Precipitation recycling on the Iberian Peninsula will increase in all seasons except summer for mid-century. Climate change, as simulated by CESM2 thus modifies atmospheric moisture transport, affecting regional hydrological cycles.