In December 2014, a novel foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus was introduced to a pig farm in South Korea, despite the animals being vaccinated. A marginal antigenic matching between the novel and vaccine strains potentially led to the infection of the vaccinated animals. To understand the impact of using an FMD vaccine on the transmission dynamics of an unmatched field strain, simulation models were employed using daily reported data on clinical cases from the farm. The results of this study indicated that immunisation with the FMD vaccine reduced the shedding of the novel FMD virus in pigs. However, there was no evidence to suggest that the immunisation had a significant effect in reducing the development of clinical signs. These findings highlight that the use of an unmatched FMD vaccine can confound the outbreak by altering the disease dynamics of the novel virus. Based on this study, we emphasise the importance of continuous testing to ensure antigenic matching between the circulating strains and the vaccine pool.
Keywords: ABC-SMC; antigenic diversity; foot and mouth disease; unmatched vaccine; vaccine effect.