The study aimed to identify critical factors associated with the surgical stability of pogonion (Pog) by applying machine learning (ML) to predict relapse following two-jaw orthognathic surgery (2 J-OGJ). The sample set comprised 227 patients (110 males and 117 females, 207 training and 20 test sets). Using lateral cephalograms taken at the initial evaluation (T0), pretreatment (T1), after (T2) 2 J-OGS, and post treatment (T3), 55 linear and angular skeletal and dental surgical movements (T2-T1) were measured. Six ML modes were utilized, including classification and regression trees (CART), conditional inference tree (CTREE), and random forest (RF). The training samples were classified into three groups; highly significant (HS) (≥ 4), significant (S) (≥ 2 and < 4), and insignificant (N), depending on Pog relapse. RF indicated that the most important variable that affected relapse rank prediction was ramus inclination (RI), CTREE and CART revealed that a clockwise rotation of more than 3.7 and 1.8 degrees of RI was a risk factor for HS and S groups, respectively. RF, CTREE, and CART were practical tools for predicting surgical stability. More than 1.8 degrees of CW rotation of the ramus during surgery would lead to significant Pog relapse.
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