A new methodology to extrapolate disease freedom to an area using surveillance results from selected aquatic populations

Abstract

According to Chapter 1.4 of the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Aquatic Animal Health Code, an entire country or zone can be classified as free of a disease only if there is compelling evidence that all susceptible populations within the country or zone are free. However, the methods for achieving freedom are not prescribed in the WOAH standards and guidelines. Within this context, this paper describes a novel methodology to determine if surveillance results can be extrapolated from a study population to a target population. A framework of six criteria was developed to standardize a method for extrapolating surveillance results to other susceptible populations that have not been sampled. Criteria 1 assesses the internal validity for the freedom claim on the source population. Criteria 2 assesses which other susceptible populations have a non-negligible probability of exposure. Criteria 3 assesses whether the risk of infection upon exposure of the source population is the same or greater than each of the other susceptible populations. Finally, Criteria 4, 5 and 6 assess if the other susceptible populations would transmit the infection to the source population or if they have the same exposure pathways as the source population. We illustrate the use of this novel methodology using two hypothetical case scenarios. The presented methodology has the advantage of being applicable either retrospectively or prospectively. When applied retrospectively, it can be used to assess if the surveillance results of the source population can be extrapolated to the target population. When applied prospectively it can be used to design a more efficient surveillance system by selecting source populations from which it is easier to extrapolate surveillance results to the rest of the target population. Conclusions drawn using this methodology depend on the validity of the assumptions made when working through the methodology. We therefore recommend cautious application of the criteria and thorough review of all assumptions.

Keywords: Aquatic surveillance; Disease freedom; External validity; Extrapolation; Representativeness; Target population.