Using regime-switching models, we attempted to determine whether there is a link between changes in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) variants and infection waves, as well as forecasting new SARS-Cov-2 variants. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the field because it proposes a new approach for forecasting the ongoing pandemic, and the spread of other infectious diseases, using a statistical model which incorporates unpredictable factors such as human behavior, political factors, and cultural beliefs.
Keywords: COVID-19; Markov-switching model; SARS-CoV-2; forecasting; phase shift; regime switch; variant; volatility.