Statistical explanation of the protective effect of four COVID-19 vaccine doses in the general population

Front Public Health. 2023 Sep 22:11:1253762. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1253762. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of four doses of the vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population and the impact of this on the severity of the disease by age group.

Methods: By using data from the health authority public data base, we build statistical models using R and the GAMLSS library to explain the behavior of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, active COVID-19 cases, ICU bed requirement total and by age group, and deaths at the national level.

Results: The four doses of vaccine and at least the interaction between the first and second doses were important explanatory factors for the protective effect against COVID-19. The R2 for new cases per day was 0.5644 and for occupied ICU beds the R2 is 0.9487. For occupied ICU beds for >70 years R2 is 0.9195 and with the interaction between 4 doses as the main factor.

Conclusions: Although the increase in the number of vaccine doses did not adequately explain the decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, it explained the decrease in ICU admissions and deaths nationwide and by age group.

Keywords: COVID-19; GAMLSS; ICU hospitalizations; explanatory model; vaccination.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 Vaccines*
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Databases, Factual
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Millennium Institute on Immunology and Immunotherapy (ICN09_016/ ICN 2021_045; former P09/016-F) and FONDECYT grant #1190830 and #1231851 from the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID).