Assessing the effectiveness of artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) in forcasting AQI and PM10 and evaluating health impacts through AirQ+ (case study: Tehran)

Abstract

Air pollution is one of the major concerns for the population and the environment due to its hazardous effects. PM₁₀ has affected significant scientific and regulatory interest because of its strong correlation with chronic health such as respiratory illnesses, lung cancer, and asthma. Forcasting air quality and assessing the health impacts of the air pollutants like particulate matter is crucial for protecting public health.This study incorporated weather, traffic, green space information, and time parameters, to forcst the AQI and PM₁₀. Traffic data plays a critical role in predicting air pollution, as it significantly influences them. Therefore, including traffic data in the ANN model is necessary and valuable. Green spaces also affect air quality, and their inclusion in neural network models can improve predictive accuracy. The key factors influencing the AQI are the two-day lag time, the proximity of a park to the AQI monitoring station, the average distance between each park and AQI monitoring stations, and the air temperature. In addition, the average distance between each park, the number of parks, seasonal variations, and the total number of vehicles are the primary determinants affecting PM₁₀.The straightforward effective Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN) demonstrated correlation coefficients (R) of 0.82 and 0.93 when forcasting AQI and PM₁₀, respectively. This study also used the forcasted PM₁₀ values from the ANN model to assess the health effects of elevated air pollution. The results indicate that elevated levels of PM₁₀ can increase the likelihood of respiratory symptoms. Among children, there is a higher prevalence of bronchitis, while among adults, the incidence of chronic bronchitis is higher. It was estimated that the attributable proportions for children and adults were 6.87% and 9.72%, respectively. These results underscore the importance of monitoring air quality and taking action to reduce pollution to safeguard public health.

Keywords: Air pollution; Air quality index; AirQ+; Artificial neural network; PM(10); Respiratory symptoms.