Influencing factors and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of net carbon sink of conservation tillage: evidence from China

Abstract

Conservation tillage is an important reform of traditional tillage, which has significant carbon sequestration and emission reduction effects. It is important to investigate the influencing factors and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of net carbon sink of conservation tillage for realizing the "dual carbon" target, and facilitating agricultural sustainable development. This study used the coefficient accounting method to calculate the carbon sink and carbon emission of conservation tillage in China from 2000 to 2019, respectively. Based on this, the net carbon sink of conservation tillage was measured. Then, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influencing factors on net carbon sink of conservation tillage was analyzed by using the geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The results showed that (1) the net carbon sink of conservation tillage in China was significant and had potential to have a constant rise; (2) spatially, the net carbon sink of conservation tillage changed more variably in longitudinal direction. Specifically, the promotion effect of conservation tillage machinery gradually decreased from west to east. The planting structure and conservation tillage promotion intensity played key roles in improving net carbon sink of conservation tillage. (3) Temporally, the effect of conservation tillage machinery showed positive effect of decreasing yearly, while the positive effect of promotion intensity increased year by year. Planting structure and economic development negatively affected improvement on the net carbon sink of conservation tillage and the negative effect increased year by year. Additionally, the effect of education on the net carbon sink shifted from positive to negative over time. The study aims to provide a reference for the government to promote conservation tillage according to local conditions and to achieve the "dual carbon" target.

Keywords: Conservation tillage; Influencing factors; Net carbon sink; Spatiotemporal heterogeneity; Sustainable agriculture.