Species range shifts of notorious invasive fish species in China under global changes: Insights and implications for management

Abstract

Due to global changes, e.g., climate change and trade globalization, China is facing an increasingly severe threat from invasive freshwater fish species, which have the potential to cause negative impacts across various aspects and pose significant challenges for their eradication once established. Therefore, prioritizing the understanding of invasive species' potential ranges and their determinants is vital for developing more targeted management strategies. Moreover, it is equally essential to consider the transitory range dynamics of invasive species that reflect changes in habitat availability and accessibility. Here, we used species distribution models (the maximum entropy algorithm) to assess the potential distributions of six notorious invasive fish species (i.e., Coptodon zillii, Cyprinus carpio, Gambusia affinis, Hemiculter leucisculus, Oreochromis mossambicus, and Oreochromis niloticus) in current and future (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) periods along with their determinants, under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5; global climate model: MRI-ESM2-0). Our results showed that the habitat suitability for the six species substantially benefited from temperature conditions (i.e., annual mean temperature or maximum temperature of warmest month). Throughout the given time periods, dramatic range expansions would occur for C. zillii, G. affinis, O. mossambicus, and O. niloticus, ranging from 38.61% to 291.90%. In contrast, the range of C. carpio would change slightly and irregularly, while H. leucisculus would contract marginally, with losses ranging from 1.06% to 12.60%. By the 2070s, species richness of these species would be relatively high in South, Central, and East China and parts of Southwest China. Furthermore, transitory fluctuations in the species ranges for all six species were observed throughout the entire time period (the 2030s-2070s). Given the range shifts for each species during different time periods, as well as time costs and budgets, adaptation strategies should be developed and implemented in the areas where they are most needed in each time period.

Keywords: Climate change; Habitat suitability; Human activities; Invasive fish species; Species distribution models; Transitory range dynamics.