Liver fibrosis estimated using extracellular volume fraction obtained from dual-energy CT as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response: A preliminary case-control study

Abstract

Purpose: To assess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) through clinical data analyses, including evaluation of liver fibrosis using the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) obtained from dual-energy computed tomography (DECT).

Methods: Ninety-two patients (52 men and 40 women; mean age, 69.9 years) with hepatitis C virus infection after SVR underwent DECT of the liver (3-minute equilibrium-phase images) between January 2020 and March 2022. The ECV was calculated by measuring iodine density; fibrous markers, including ECV, fibrosis-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, and platelet count, were statistically analyzed (p < 0.05). The risk factors associated with HCC were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results: The ECV (26.1 ± 4.6 %) in patients with HCC (n,21) was significantly larger than the ECV (20.7 ± 3.3 %) in patients without HCC (n = 71) (p < 0.001). The cutoff value for the ECV was 24.3 %. The area under the operating characteristic curve of the ECV was 0.857, which was higher than that of the serum fibrosis markers. Older age, SVR achieved with interferon, alpha-fetoprotein level (>5 ng/mL), advanced fibrosis before treatment (>F3), and ECV were associated with HCC according to the univariate analysis. Multivariate analyses showed that ECV was the only factor independently associated with HCC (odds ratio 0.619, 95 % confidence interval 0.482-0.795, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: Liver fibrosis estimated using ECV can be a predictive marker in patients with HCC after SVR.

Keywords: Dual-energy computed tomography; Hepatitis C virus; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver fibrosis; Sustained virologic response.