Governments worldwide have announced stimulus packages to remobilize the labor force after COVID-19 and therefore to cope with the COVID-19-related recession. However, it is still unclear how to facilitate large-scale work resumption. This paper aims to clarify the issue by analyzing the large-scale prefecture-level dataset of human mobility trajectory information for 320 million workers and about 500,000 policy documents in China. We model work resumption as a collective behavioral change due to configurations of capacity, motivation, and policy instruments by using qualitative comparative analysis. We find that the effectiveness of post-COVID-19 recovery stimulus varied across China depending on the fiscal and administrative capacity and the policy motivation of the prefecture. Subnational fiscal and procurement policies were more effective for the wholesale and retail sector and the hotel and catering sector, whereas the manufacturing and business services sectors required more effort regarding employment policies. Due to limited prefectural capacity and wavering policy motivation, the simultaneous adoption of fiscal, employment, and procurement policy interventions endangered post-COVID-19 work resumption. We highlight the necessity of tailored postcrisis recovery strategies based on local fiscal and administrative capacity and the sectoral structure.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; Fogg behavior model; policy instruments; work resumption.