Multi-scenario simulation of runoff and nutrient loads in a rapidly urbanizing watershed during China's Dual Carbon periods

Abstract

Apprehending the hydrological and nutrient variations in rapidly urbanizing watersheds under changing environments is crucial for pollution control and water resource management. However, existing studies have primarily focused on hydrological processes, neglecting water quality aspects, and comprehensive assessment of future runoff and nutrient loads in these watersheds during China's Dual Carbon periods is limited. This study firstly bridges these gaps by constructing multi-scenario with different levels of "Urban Development - Ecological Conservation" and utilizing latest bias-corrected General Circulation Models or Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections to evaluate future runoff and nutrient loads in the Shenzhen River. The calibrated and validated models display satisfactory performance in simulating runoff, nutrient loads, and land use types. The bias-corrected GCMs projections exhibit enhanced accuracy for temperature variables, particularly during the wet season. Implementing effective ecological protection measures is paramount in mitigating water quantity fluctuations and controlling total nitrogen pollution, which is closely associated with urban development and human activities. Conversely, total phosphorus loads demonstrate greater simulation uncertainty, particularly during the dry season of the Carbon Neutrality period, requiring further exploration. Compared to the baseline period, runoff changes minimally, with notable seasonal variations. The findings highlight the escalating uncertainty in load predictions as time progresses. Additionally, addressing uncertainties in precipitation projections driven by GCMs is imperative, given their substantial influence on runoff and nutrient load simulations, particularly during challenging dry seasons. While further research is needed to reduce simulation uncertainty, our study provides valuable insights into nitrogen-phosphorus pollution control and sustainable water resource management in rapidly urbanizing watersheds, especially during the near-term period.