Modeling the power system resilience in China under different natural disasters

Hao Chen; Kai Gong; Yunhao Chang; Weijun He; Haopeng Geng; Boyan Zhang; Wenfeng Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119151

Modeling the power system resilience in China under different natural disasters

J Environ Manage. 2023 Dec 1:347:119151. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119151. Epub 2023 Sep 28.

Authors

Hao Chen¹, Kai Gong², Yunhao Chang³, Weijun He⁴, Haopeng Geng⁵, Boyan Zhang⁶, Wenfeng Zhang⁷

Affiliations

¹ School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Department of Chemistry, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. Electronic address: chenhao9133@126.com.
² School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. Electronic address: gk2000@ruc.edu.cn.
³ School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. Electronic address: changyunhao@126.com.
⁴ School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China. Electronic address: whe0323@163.com.
⁵ School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China. Electronic address: ghp926@cug.edu.cn.
⁶ School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. Electronic address: zhangboyan13@163.com.
⁷ School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. Electronic address: wfzhang1217@126.com.

PMID: 37776799
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119151

Abstract

A good understanding of the power system resilience is necessary for optimizing the investment strategies and supporting the emergency rescue, but the existing quantitative estimation results based on real outage events are still lacked due to the data limitations. Therefore, this study first establishes a unified framework to measure the power system resilience under different natural disasters, by integrating the electricity performance curve with the dynamic inoperability input-output model. Then, a database of 285 Chinese historical big power outage events caused by natural disasters is established, and the city-level power system resilience values are estimated. Finally, a benefit analysis is conducted for improving the power system resilience. Our major findings are that: (1) Electricity system recoveries quickest from hail (23.05 h), while restores slowest from snowstorm (117.31 h). (2) China's city electricity system is the most resilient to the thunderstorm, while is the least resilient to the earthquake. (3) Enhancing the power system resilience will significantly reduce the requirements for rescue resources, and the saved emergency rescue cost ranges from 0.57 million yuan to 12.08 million yuan with 1% reduction of initial inoperability.

Keywords: China; Electricity system; Estimation; Natural disaster; Resilience.

MeSH terms

China
Cities
Disasters*
Electricity
Natural Disasters*