Purpose: To develop a prediction model based on patient-related characteristics for detecting prostate cancer (PCa) in patients with Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 4-5 in multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI), aiming to optimize pre-biopsy risk stratification in MRI.
Materials and methods: The patient-related characteristics including the lesion location, age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA), fPSA/PSA, prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) and body mass index (BMI) were collected for patients who underwent mp-MRI and prostate biopsy between February 2014 and October 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to select independent predictors of PCa and further create a prediction model. The diagnostic performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Moreover, sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value (PPV) and negative-predictive value (NPV) were also calculated.
Results: A total of 833 patients were included in this study. In the subgroup PI-RADS 4, the independent characteristics of lesion location, age, fPSA/PSA and PSAD were selected to create the prediction model with an AUC of 0.748 (95% CI 0.694-0.803), sensitivity of 61.88%, specificity of 85.32%, PPV of 92.52%, and NPV of 43.26%. Besides, the prediction model in PI-RADS 5 was created using PSA and PSAD with an AUC of 0.893 (95% CI 0.844-0.941), sensitivity of 81.40%, specificity of 84.85%, PPV of 98.37% and NPV of 28.87%.
Conclusion: The patient-related clinical characteristics were significant predictors of PCa and the prediction model based on selected characteristics could achieve a medium risk prediction of PCa in PI-RADS 4-5.
Keywords: Diagnosis; Magnetic resonance imaging; Patient-related characteristics; Prostate cancer; Prostate imaging reporting and data system.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.