Estimating the Burden of Influenza Hospitalizations Across Multiple Seasons Using Capture-Recapture

Abstract

Introduction: Influenza remains an important cause of hospitalizations in the United States. Estimating the number of influenza hospitalizations is vital for public health decision making. Combining existing surveillance systems through capture-recapture methods allows for more comprehensive burden estimations.

Methods: Data from independent surveillance systems were combined using capture-recapture methods to estimate influenza hospitalization rates for children and adults in Middle Tennessee during consecutive influenza seasons from 2016-17 through 2019-20. EIP identified cases through surveillance of laboratory results for hospitalized children and adults. HAIVEN and NVSN recruited hospitalized patients with respiratory symptoms or fever. Population-based influenza rates and the proportion of cases detected by each surveillance system were calculated.

Results: Estimated overall influenza hospitalization rates ranged from 23 influenza-related hospitalizations per 10,000 persons in 2016-17 to 40 per 10,000 persons in 2017-18. Adults age ≥65 years had the highest hospitalization rates across seasons and experienced a rate of 170 hospitalizations per 10,000 persons during the 2017-18 season. EIP consistently identified a higher proportion of influenza cases for adults and children compared with HAIVEN and NVSN, respectively.

Conclusion: Current surveillance systems underestimate the influenza burden. Capture-recapture provides an alternative approach to use data from independent surveillance systems and complement population-based burden estimates.

Keywords: Capture-recapture; Hospitalizations; Influenza.