Decoupling for a greener future: a spatio-temporal analysis of CO2 emissions and economic growth

Abstract

Climate change mitigation is a pressing global challenge that requires reducing CO₂ emissions without hindering economic growth. Using an extended Kaya identity, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and Tapio decoupling indicator, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal variations, drivers, and decoupling of CO₂ emissions from economic growth in 150 countries from 1990 to 2019, considering regional disparities and income-based inequalities. The findings reveal increasing CO₂ emissions between 1990 and 2019, with notable fluctuations in certain 5-year intervals. CO₂ emission growth varied significantly by region, with countries like China, the USA, India, and Japan experiencing rapid increases. Economic growth emerged as the primary driver of CO₂ emission growth, and its impact strengthened over time. Population growth also contributed significantly to CO₂ emissions, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. The study identifies energy and carbon intensity as crucial mitigating factors that weaken CO₂ emissions, offering hope for effective climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the degree of decoupling between economic growth and CO₂ emissions varied among countries in the same region, with high-income countries demonstrating stronger decoupling compared to upper-middle-income countries, which accounted for 71% of global CO₂ emission increase. These findings underline the imperative of accounting for income levels and regional differences in formulating CO₂ emission mitigation strategies. Also, the study emphasizes the pressing necessity for cohesive global coordination to facilitate the transition toward a low-carbon economy. Such collaborative endeavors are paramount in our collective pursuit to combat climate change effectively, safeguarding the well-being and sustenance of our planet for future generations. As policymakers, it is imperative to integrate these insights into decision-making processes to chart a sustainable and resilient course forward.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic growth; Kaya; LMDI; Spatio-temporal; Tapio.