Objective: This study aimed to construct an optimal model to predict radiation pneumonia (RP) after radiotherapy for esophageal cancer using unified fractional dosiomics and to investigate the improvements in the prediction efficiency of each model for RP.
Methods: The clinical data, DVH, pre-treatment CT, and dose distribution of 182 patients were retrospectively analyzed.The independent risk factors were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The mutual information (MI),least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and recursive feature elimination (RFE) methods were used to screen the omics features. The AUC values of ROC, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves were calculated to evaluate the efficacy and trends of each model.
Results: The AUC of dosiomics model were 0.783 and 0.760 in the training and test cohorts, higher than 0.585 and 0.579 in the training and test cohorts of the DVH model. The AUC value of the R + D combination was the highest, reaching 0.833. The combined R + D model had a better calibration degree than the other models (mean absolute error = 0.018) and better net benefit in clinical decision-making.
Conclusions: The radiomics combined dosiomics model was the best combined model to predict RP after radiotherapy for esophageal cancer. The dosiomics model could cover the efficiency of the DVH model and significantly improve the efficiency of the combined model.In the future, we will include other centers for further verification.
Advances in knowledge: For the first time, this study used CT images combined dose distribution to predict the occurrence of radiation pneumonitis after radiotherapy for esophageal cancer.