Predictors of All-Cause Mortality After Successful Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Abstract

Prevalent and incident atrial fibrillation are common in patients who undergo transcatheter aortic valve implantation and are associated with impaired postprocedural outcomes, including mortality. We determined predictors of long-term mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation after successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The EdoxabaN Versus standard of care and theIr effectS on clinical outcomes in pAtients havinG undergonE Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation-Atrial Fibrillation (ENVISAGE-TAVI AF) trial (NCT02943785) was a multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled trial in patients with prevalent or incident atrial fibrillation after successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation who received edoxaban or vitamin K antagonists. A Cox proportional hazard model was performed to identify predictors of all-cause mortality using a stepwise approach for multiple regression analysis. In addition, we assessed the performance of different risk scores and prediction models using ENVISAGE-TAVI AF data. Of 1,426 patients in ENVISAGE-TAVI AF, 178 (12.5%) died during the follow-up period (median 548 days). Our stepwise approach identified greater risk of mortality with older age, impaired renal function, nonparoxysmal atrial fibrillation, excessive alcohol use, New York Heart Association heart failure class III/IV, peripheral artery disease, and history of major bleeding or predisposition to bleeding. The present model (concordance statistic [c-statistic] 0.67) was a better discriminator than were other frequently used risk scores, such as the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score (c-statistic 0.56); Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75, Diabetes, Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, and Sex category (CHA₂DS₂-VASc) score (c-statistic 0.54); or Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly, and Drugs/alcohol concomitantly (HAS-BLED) score (c-statistic 0.58). In ENVISAGE-TAVI AF, several modifiable and nonmodifiable clinical characteristics were significantly associated with greater long-term all-cause mortality. Improved risk stratification to estimate the probability of mortality after successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with atrial fibrillation may improve long-term patient prognosis.

Keywords: antithrombotic treatment; aortic valve implantation; atrial fibrillation; risk scores.