Background: Hematoma expansion (HE) is common in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and associated with a worse outcome. Imaging makers and shorter time from symptom onset are both associated with HE, but prognostic scores based on these parameters individually have not been satisfactory. We hypothesized that a score including both imaging markers of expansion, and time of onset, would improve prediction.
Methods: Patients with supratentorial ICH within 6 h after onset were consecutively recruited from six centers between January 2018 and August 2022. Three markers were used: hypodensities, the blend sign, and the island sign. We first defined frequency of imaging markers (FIM) as the relationship between the number of imaging markers and onset-to-CT time (OCT). The time-adjusted FIM was defined as the ratio of the number of imaging markers to the onset-to-initial imaging time. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the relationship between FIM and HE. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to identify potential threshold values of FIM that optimally predict HE. In addition, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPVs and NPVs), and the area under the curve (AUC) of the optimal cut-off in predicting HE were calculated.
Results: In total, 1488 patients were eligible for inclusion, of whom 418 had incident HE. Multivariate analysis showed that age, male sex, baseline Glasgow Coma Scale score, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage, and FIM were independent predictors of HE (odds ratio (OR) = 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.97-0.99; OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.28-2.35; OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.83-0.92; OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.28-0.62; OR = 7.82, 95% CI = 5.86-10.42, respectively). The optimal cut-off point for FIM in predicting HE was 0.63, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and AUC values of 0.69, 0.89, 0.71, 0.88, and 0.83, respectively.
Conclusion: The FIM adjusted for time since symptom onset is a significant predictor of HE. Its use may allow improved prediction of those patients with ICH who develop HE, and the score may be clinically applicable in the management of patients with ICH.
Keywords: Intracerebral hemorrhage; computed tomography; hematoma expansion; marker.