Introduction: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) became an essential tool for laboratories to provide high-sensitivity qualitative diagnostic testing for patients and real-time data to public health officials. Here we explore the predictive value of quantitative data from RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values in epidemiological measures, symptom presentation, and variant transition.
Methods: To examine the association with hospitalizations and deaths, data from 74,479 patients referred to the Avera Institute for Human Genetics (AIHG) for COVID-19 testing in 2020 were matched by calendar week to epidemiological data reported by the South Dakota Department of Health. We explored the association between symptom data, patient age, and Ct values for 101 patients. We also explored changes in Ct values during variant transition detected by genomic surveillance sequencing of the AIHG testing population during 2021.
Results: Measures from AIHG diagnostic testing strongly explain variance in the South Dakota state positivity percentage (R2 = 0.758), a two-week delay in hospitalizations (R2 = 0.856), and a four-week delay in deaths (R2 = 0.854). Based on factor analysis of patient symptoms, three groups could be distinguished which had different presentations of age, Ct value, and time from collection. Additionally, conflicting Ct value results among SARSCoV- 2 variants during variant transition may reflect the community transmission dynamics.
Conclusions: Measures of Ct value in RT-PCR diagnostic assays combined with routine screening have valuable applications in monitoring the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within communities.
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