Structure and function are the inherent characteristics of each ecosystem providing various services such as clean air, extreme weather mitigation, and mental and physical well-being. The objective of this study is to develop a unified model combining Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services, ecological network (EN), and correlation analysis to investigate changes in ecosystem structure, function, and process. In this context, carbon sequestration, soil reduction, and flood risk mitigation were quantified from 2000 to 2020 and predicted for 2040 using the cellular automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) model. Finally, correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship over time between the land use (LU) classes and the components of the forest EN that provide and exchange desired ecosystem services (ESs). Thus, the changes in LU in the region in recent years led to significant reduction of ESs in the region as well as changes in the interaction between services. These changes, on the one hand, reduced the area of cores and increased isolated forest patches and, on the other hand, led to the horizontal expansion of cities and agricultural lands. If this trend continues, the decline in services provided by the ecosystem will persist into the future. Consequently, it can be said that structural changes in the ecosystem can lead to changes in the ESs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1-13. © 2023 SETAC.
Keywords: Carbon storage; Ecological network; Ecosystem services; Flood mitigation; Sediment retention.
© 2023 SETAC.