Enhancing scientific transparency in national CO2 emissions reports via satellite-based a posteriori estimates

Masataka Watanabe; Akihiro Oba; Yoko Saito; Gomboluudev Purevjav; Batjargal Gankhuyag; Munkhbat Byamba-Ochir; Batjargal Zamba; Tomohiro Shishime

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42664-3

Enhancing scientific transparency in national CO₂ emissions reports via satellite-based a posteriori estimates

Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 18;13(1):15427. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42664-3.

Authors

Masataka Watanabe¹, Akihiro Oba², Yoko Saito², Gomboluudev Purevjav³, Batjargal Gankhuyag³, Munkhbat Byamba-Ochir³, Batjargal Zamba⁴, Tomohiro Shishime⁵

Affiliations

¹ Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, Tokyo, 1128551, Japan. masawata@tamacc.chuo-u.ac.jp.
² Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, Tokyo, 1128551, Japan.
³ Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Ulaanbaatar, 15160, Mongolia.
⁴ Climate Change Research and Cooperation Centre, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 14191, Mongolia.
⁵ Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, Tokyo, 1128551, Japan.

Abstract

Biennial Update Reports (BURs) are essential requirements from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, many non-Annex I countries have not submitted these reports due to difficulties in compiling the inventories. We developed a satellite-based method for the top-down inverse estimation of CO₂ emissions using partial-column data in the lower troposphere obtained by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite, adopted to validate the Mongolian 2^nd BUR (BUR2) for the energy sector in 2018. The estimated CO₂ emissions were only 1.5% higher than those reported in the BUR2; these were also very close (4.2% smaller) to estimates from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research. Mongolia is the first country to introduce an independent inverse estimate in its BUR, thereby increasing scientific transparency. Our method could be applied into other countries and could be incorporated into UNFCCC reporting guidelines, significantly improving global CO₂ emission estimates.