The Chinese oil and gas industry requires targeted policies to reduce methane emissions. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to predict future methane emission trends and analyze the factors that influence them. However, changing economic development patterns, insufficient analysis of various factors influencing emissions, and inadequate resolution of methane emission inventories have made these goals difficult to achieve. Accordingly, this study aims to expand the methane emission estimation method to compile source-level emission inventories for future emissions, analyze the factors influencing them, and form a mechanistic understanding of the methane emissions from the local oil and gas industry. The research results indicate that methane emissions deriving from this industry will increase rapidly before 2030, after which they will decline slowly in all scenarios. The production and utilization processes in the natural gas supply chain, i.e., compressors and liquid unloading, include the main sources of methane emissions. Emissions are affected significantly by total production and consumption. Change in the overall supply and demand of natural gas affects change in methane emissions more significantly than adopting new technologies and strengthening facility maintenance, i.e., the overall supply and demand of natural gas are the dominant factors in controlling methane emissions. This study suggests that controlling the total demand for oil and gas should be at the core of the methane emission control policy for the local oil and gas industry. Moreover, equipment maintenance and emission reduction technologies should be used more effectively to reduce total emissions.
Keywords: China's oil and natural gas sector; Methane emission; Scenario analysis; Source level inventory; Trend and influencing factor.
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